For the last three years, Christmas in Ukraine has meant no carols, processionsor its celebrated puppet shows.Patrick Drennanreports.

The forecast for Christmas Day in Ukraine is for snow, with temperatures between -2 degrees and2 degrees Celsius. It means that neither the Russian nor Ukrainian militaries can advance on the battlefield, so Russia will intensify its widespread attacks on towns and cities.

Russian missile and drone attacks will be aimed at railway hubs, oil refineries and electricity transmitters. Often, it will target residential areas. All to break the will of the Ukrainian people. The national energy companyUkrenergo declaresthat Ukraine can expect rolling blackouts throughout the entire winter.

How will Ukrainians cope?

A regional conflict has turned into the biggest threat to global peace and security since the end of the Cold War.

Christmas in Ukraine is a family affair, starting with Mass on Christmas Eve, and 12 courses (representing the apostles) of meat-free dishes on Christmas Day. For the last three years, there have been no carols, processions, or the celebrated vertep puppet shows. Acultural Christmas treehas been erected in Sofia Square in Kiev for brief gatherings. Thousands of toys will be placed around the 16-meter tree.

In some of the metro stations used as bomb shelters, efforts had been made to put up decorations. Choral groups perform underground. In basements across the country, candles are lit, food is eaten, and traditional songs likeHeaven and Earth Today Rejoice are sung. Electricity is limited (about four hours a day), but people cook and are kept warm by wood-burning stoves.

Tenby PowellofKiwi Aid & Refugee Evacuation (KARE) has been delivering portable stoves and reconditioned ambulances into war-torn Ukrainefor the last three years. He is currently in the Kherson and Donetsk regions. A dangerous situation, as the Russian military recentlyattackedclearly marked civilian ambulances.

Powell notes:

On the frontlines, it is becoming more difficult for Ukrainian troopsas they are overwhelmed by the sheer number of Russian troops and their mercenaries.Storiesof Ukrainian troops going on leave to Europe and not returning are more common. Interestingly, the Ukrainian military does not imprison them if they return later there is a lack of military-age replacements. Some young Ukrainians are fleeing to Europe. Yet many other war-weary veterans, battle on.

Powell grimly observes:

The erratic military support from Europe and the United States also wears on them.

Powell says:

The United States proposed a28-point peace planfor the war that closely copied Russias2022 Istanbul demands. After some negotiations with Ukraine, it wasreduced to 19 points.

Americaallegedly threatenedto withdraw arms and military intelligence if Ukraine did not sign an agreement by 26 November (Thanksgiving Day in America).

Ukraine was conciliatory but rightly refused to hand over territory that Russia had not conquered. They have agreed to not joining NATO but want concrete security guarantees in case Russia resumes attacks.

The Thanksgiving Day deadline came and went, and no agreement was reached.

Russian PresidentVladimir Putinmet Americas special envoySteve Witkoffin Moscow on 2 December.No compromise was reached, and no leaders' meeting was planned before Christmas.

The reaction from Russia has beenlargely negative. Russias maximalist goals have not changed. President Putin cannot accept a ceasefire on the current frontlines for three reasons: Firstly, he cannot justify theone million casualties to date, without any significant gains. Secondly, he will not meet with Ukrainian PresidentVolodymyr Zelenskybecause he has repeatedly told the Russian people that Zelensky is illegitimate. Finally, without control of all of Donetsk, abulwark of Ukrainian defence, he cannot fulfil his long-term plans of taking Ukraine in its entirety.

As Ukraine faces mounting debt and uncertain recovery, a new kind of loan could offer vital relief, one that grows with the economy and waits till it can pay.

So, the brutish war continues.

On November 19, Russia launched 48 missiles and 442 drones on Ukraine. Two apartments were struck in the city ofTernopil, resulting in 35 dead civilians, plus 93 injured, including 18 children.

On the first day of winter, Russia launched a ballistic missile strike atDnipro, killing four people and hospitalising 40.

Survivor Oksana declared:

Overall, Russias daily attacks on civilians have resulted in 3,018child casualties comprising 733 killed and 2,285 injured.According to the NGO,Save the Children, 43 per centof the children in the Ukrainian regions where they operate suffer from symptoms of anxiety, fear, moodiness, and irritability. These children develop speech defects, uncontrollable twitching, terrifying nightmares and scream in their sleep.

If you wish to send funds or Christmas gifts to Ukrainian children, it is possible through theUkraine Support Fund AustraliaorUNICEF USA.

Patrick Drennanis a journalist based in New Zealand, with a degree in American history and economics.

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